Based on the long-term revenue profiles of the two clubs, Sporting CP would expect to beat Manchester United in a one-off game 16% of the time, and lose 61% of the time. But based on how well both clubs have been performing on the pitch recently those odds would completely reverse, to 52% and 22% respectively.

This reflects both Sporting’s incredible overachievement relative to their budget, and Manchester United’s underachievement. Amorim has been a major driver of the Portuguese club’s success, ranking #1 in our Overachieving Head Coaches leaderboard.

Amorim must not be the plan in and of himself though. Our research shows that one of the biggest predictors of coaching performance is how well their predecessor performed: a coach is twice as likely to fail if the club’s previous manager also failed (and vice versa for success), demonstrating the importance of a wider club strategy in driving on-field performance.