Finding value in the transfer market

Popular markets for player recruitment are expensive for the quality of players they possess. Our models indicate that relative to the quality of players they are acquiring, clubs overpay by 68% for talent from the Championship, 38% from the Premier League, and 29% from Ligue 1.

Clubs recruit from these markets because they are well-known and in theory offer less risk, but the high demand for players increases prices.

Our analysis indicates that there is talent of Premier League and Championship quality in lower-demand leagues, where prices tend to be much lower. Our World Sports Rankings highlight leagues in Scandinavia, East Asia and South America where prices paid are significantly less than the intrinsic value of the talent acquired.

In some cases, clubs must invest more in helping players navigate a change of environment, but the cost of this is far less than the premium of recruiting from overvalued leagues.

By
Chief Intelligence Officer

Related Content