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England play India in cricket’s T20 World Cup semi-final tomorrow. England have selected a relatively consistent lineup during the Super 8s, but our simulation model – which projects player performance in a given context – predicts this line-up would only have a 40% chance of beating India.

England could make three changes to increase their chances to 47%:

• Play Tom Hartley as an extra spinner: By selecting him over a seamer (Jordan), this would make use of his low predicted economy rate against India’s batters
• Play Will Jacks over Liam Livingstone: Jacks is rated as a more impactful batsman against a spin-dominant India, increasing England’s win probability by 3% when selected over Livingstone
• Play Ben Duckett: Duckett ranks as the best player of leg spin at the tournament and is strong against left-arm spin, making his skillset very suitable against India’s attack, which is otherwise suited to England’s right-hand dominant batting lineup.