Under their Abu Dhabi United Group ownership, there has always been much focus on Manchester City’s spending as a driver for their success. But our analysis suggests that their six titles in the last seven years could not have been done without spending the money well  – or without Pep Guardiola.

Based on the historical relationship between performance and spending in the Premier League, City would have been expected to win 77 points per season since 2017. That they have won 91 points on average is in part a testament to shrewd recruitment, sensible squad management and effective performance operations. But it is also a reflection of Pep’s genius. City had, on occasion, outperformed their budget before Guardiola, but results were up and down. The consistency of City’s success in the last seven years validates his status as one of the greatest coaches of all time.