Going up on a budget

Most simply, a football club’s on field performance comes down to how much they spend on talent and how well they spend it.

In some leagues, such as the EFL Championship, the latter matters as much as the former. The correlation between results and performance is just 55%, meaning teams can finish higher in the league than their budget might indicate.

The potential to overachieve on a small budget can be substantial. Our models indicate that a moderately well run club can achieve a 1-in-4 chance of the playoffs or better with a total wage spend of £24m, compared with £38m for a typical club with the same odds.

This type of modelling, which can be provided by Twenty First Group, is critical at this time of year, as clubs calculate budgets and overachievement strategies for next season in their push for sustained success.

By Omar Chaudhuri
Chief Intelligence Officer 

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