The outcome of Nottingham Forest’s visit to Everton this weekend is enormously consequential. 

As it stands, an Everton win virtually assures survival for the Toffees, while Forest would be left with a 43% chance of relegation. An away win would reduce Forest’s chances to 9%, and increase Everton’s risk to 21%. 

While there is of course the additional uncertainty around the eventual magnitude of points deductions, it is useful to remember that the difference between relative safety and material relegation risk – worth over £100m in revenue – for both clubs could come down to the smallest of factors on Sunday. A shot aimed a fraction high, a leap marginally mistimed, or a run spotted a moment too late could all cause a major swing in both teams’ fortunes – and ultimately have very little to do with skill. 

It is these margins and that jeopardy that makes it a must-watch game.