Comparing Max Verstappen’s dominance

F1 global Google searches have dropped by 76% in the last 2 years. Max Verstappen’s unprecedented 86% win rate last season highlights the dominance issue.

Our projections estimate Verstappen to have a 90% chance of winning a fourth consecutive World Championship title. This is nearly unprecedented in sport. For context, in golf Tiger Woods highest pre-tournament probability was 55% in Augusta 2007. In Tennis, the highest has been 71% for Serena Williams in 2013 Roland Garros and 81% for Nadal in the 2018 French Open. PSG in 18/19 are the only team in Europe’s Big Five leagues to have a greater than 90% chance (93%) pre-season.

Despite F1’s global expansion to 24 races, connecting fans worldwide, and boasting a grid with three world champions that drives quality, the absence of race unpredictability continues to hinder fan engagement. Without the element of jeopardy, F1 risks falling short in captivating its audience.

By Aurel Nazmiu
Senior Data Scientist

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