With so much money spent, it becomes even more critical to review the window’s impact, using our Intelligence Engine to understand the likely winners and losers and key trends in the market.
The Winners and Losers
According to our player and projection models, Chelsea were one of the winners of the window, with their business improving their title odds by 6% and their top four chances by 13%, the most of any club. As with Chelsea, Manchester United’s signings have also had a positive impact on their Champions League qualification chances, improving them by 12%.
There was a lot of interest in Leeds United’s transfer window when they sold key players Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha to Man City and Barcelona respectively, but our models suggest that they have re-invested the money they received for those transfers wisely, building a more balanced squad with greater depth across the pitch and improving their relegation chances by 10%, the most of any team in the Premier League.
Without question the club who faced the biggest challenges in the transfer window was Bournemouth. A combination of their rivals strengthening their squads and limited improvements made themselves has seen their relegation chances increase by 17%, comfortably more than any other side.
Due as well in large part to the investment made by rivals, Liverpool saw one of the biggest drops in end-of-season prospects through the course of the window. Despite the big money signing of Darwin Nunez, the signing of Fabio Carvalho, and the deadline day arrival of Arthur Melo, our models suggest that there has been a 20% drop in Liverpool’s chances of finishing in the top 4, although they still remain second-favourites behind Manchester City. The loss of Sadio Mané is also a contributing factor here.
With the transfer window being a dynamic and complex environment in which to deal, having a complete understanding of rivals’ activities – and the impact that is likely to have on your own team – can help clubs better plan and react during their transfer windows.
The Best Value Deals and Deals to Watch
Our Player Valuation Model allows us to understand what a ‘fair’ value is for players in an efficient, rational market place. However, context and circumstances mean players may not always sell for this value, enabling us to identify the players who were signed for good or over-valued deals. While it is important to acknowledge the role of player salaries in evaluating the overall financial impact of a transfer, these types of models enable clubs to get an initial understanding of the value for money they are getting in the market.
The Best Value Deals
The highest-profile transfer of the summer was Erling Haaland, who moved for a reported £51m to Manchester City. Players like Haaland are almost impossible to value; in the last 10 years only Kylian Mbappé and Neymar have performed at a similar level at the same age, and it is therefore unsurprising that they are also the two most expensive footballers in history. Given these benchmarks, and the growth in Premier League income and spending since 2018, it is safe to say that a fair market value for the Norwegian is in excess of £200m.
Man City also feature in the next three best value deals of the summer; however this time from the sell side, with Gabriel Jesus (£76m), Raheem Sterling (£63m) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (£20m) all leaving the Etihad for fees significantly less than their objective market value. While this may seem surprising, a closer look shows that both Jesus and Sterling were in the final year of their contracts, significantly weakening Man City’s negotiating position, while Zinchenko was into the final two years of his deal. A similar explanation can be applied to fifth best value deal; Fabio Carvalho’s move to Liverpool from Fulham upon the end of his contract at Craven Cottage.