There are criticisms that the Premier League lacks jeopardy this season, with the title and relegation battles all but wrapped up.

However, this is a short-sighted view of jeopardy, and one-dimensional. Competitions need a long-term view too. Unpredictability across seasons – and not just within seasons or within games – is a lead indicator for fans’ appetite to return to the action year after year.

Here the Premier League scores well: the 2024/25 table only moderately resembles 2023/24. The correlation between teams’ points per game this season and last season is just 55%, which is amongst the lowest year-on-year correlations of all ‘big 5’ league seasons in the FFP era. It’s trending in the right direction too.

Leagues can’t affect how the cards fall in a season, but strategic choices around revenue distribution and financial regulations can help grow jeopardy and value for all in the long-term.