Euro 2024 had an average goal difference of 1.04 per game, the tightest since the 16-team format began in 1996. Whilst the success of teams like Georgia and Romania make the prospect of expansion from 24 to 32 teams appealing (especially given the current awkwardness around 3rd-placed qualifiers), it could undermine the tournament’s jeopardy.

Our simulations show that one-sided games (with a favourite >50% likely to win) would increase from 19% to 35%. Partial or full dead rubbers in match round 3 would also increase from 28% to 35%.

Meanwhile, the benefits would likely be marginal. We’d only see a 2 percentage point increase in the share of top 500 global players represented, per our player model, meaning little improvement in quality. The share of the European population represented would increase from 86% to 92%, marginally connecting more fans. 

Careful consideration is needed before expanding the Euros any further.