36 teams will compete in the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League’s newly-formed ‘league stage’, four more than today. Two of these new places will be awarded to the associations with the best collective performance by their clubs this season in Europe, meaning clubs face the tantalising prospect of an unexpected ‘back door’ qualification.
It is very likely that England will secure one of these spots. Our modelling estimates a 91% chance that fifth place in the Premier League will qualify a team for the Champions League.
The second spot is up for grabs, but Italy and Germany are currently front runners at around 40% each. Spain’s chances have been hurt by Osasuna’s early exit.
An extra spot opens the door for overachieving clubs like Brighton and Freiburg to access Europe’s riches, with UEFA forecasting a roughly 30% increase in prize money as well as distributions less weighted to historic performance.