Three Summer Window Observations

  1. Premier League securing foundations: ominously for rivals, players bought by Premier League clubs were on average younger, better, and have a higher predicted TFG rating in 3 years than the average player bought in any of the other big 5 leagues.
  2. BlueCo multi-club group creating upside: Strasbourg and Chelsea’s signings are on average forecast to improve their win probability impact by 10% and 8% respectively over three years; only Real Madrid (12%) and Lorient’s (9%) signings match this. Despite Chelsea’s vast spending, the average fee paid was 9% less than what TFG’s Price Model predicted.
  3. SPL threat: of all transactions involving big 5 league clubs, Saudi Pro League purchases accounted for 15 of the best 100 players to move. Only the Premier League (28) had more. The major threat for European leagues is if Saudi clubs target young talent; they purchased just 2 of the best 100 under-26 players to move.

By Omar Chaudhuri
Chief Intelligence Officer 

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