Daniil Medvedev’s win at the Rome Masters means Novak Djokovic will be seeded 3rd at this year’s French Open, behind the Russian and World number 1 Carlos Alcaraz. Djokovic’s fall to 3rd seed means his chances of reaching the final have dropped from 57% to 50%, a fall of 7% based purely on the difficulty of his draw.
Djokovic remains the best player in the world according to most observers and our player ratings, meaning the seeding is doing both him and the tournament a disservice. A final without him would be both lower quality and less box office – the attraction of watching arguably the greatest player of all time compete at the sharp end of a grand slam remains significant.
Given his place in the pantheon, the organisers, sponsors, broadcasters and most fans will be hoping he overcomes his seeding and makes it to the second Sunday regardless.