There has recently been talk that the IPL is looking at implementing a new draft player trading system in place of the existing auction format. Naturally, we wanted to put our intelligence engine to work to identify three mutually beneficial and logical swap deals that could make sense for both teams in the event of a player trading system being introduced.
In order to do this, we have utilised our ‘Win Probability Added’ (WPA) model, which quantifies the win probabilities for each team throughout the game, giving us the ability to measure the impact on the outcome of the match of individual player performances or team performances during a certain phase of the match, among other things. We applied WPA to this exercise as follows:
- Identified phases in IPL 2022 where teams were weak using WPA (E.g. CSK were losing on average 15% WPA when bowling at the death).
- Analysed that this is because they have lower-quality players rather than high quality players just happening to have a bad season. (E.g. DJ Bravo has historically been good, but no other player has generally had positive impacts at the death in previous seasons).
- Identified players with fewer than four appearances from other squads who have performed well in that phase since 2019 to help ‘close the gap’ (e.g. Nathan Ellis only played twice for PBKS but on average increases his team’s chances of winning by 5% at the death).
- Repeated this process to find a ‘match’ that is mutually beneficial for both teams and where squad rules on overseas players are not impacted. (E.g. Where PBKS needed a CSK player who didn’t play).
Below are three example swap deals that we believe would be mutually beneficial for both teams considering their performance in the 2022 IPL: