How to interpret Manchester United and Bayer Leverkusen’s sackings of Erik ten Hag, 10 months apart? A poor coach who has struggled to adapt to Europe’s major leagues?

Or is it that ten Hag’s success at Ajax, which helped earn him these roles, was more a function of the club’s strong systems, processes and culture, especially under then-CEO Edwin van der Sar? A club’s ‘Organisational Intelligence’ (or lack thereof) is a stronger predictor of success than their head coach’s CV.

To that point: since 2015, Bayer Leverkusen and Manchester United have finished higher than their league spending rank on just 5 occasions, or 25% of seasons, and finished below in 12 seasons (60%). These are clubs who, over the last decade, have underachieved almost by default, with periods of good performance explained by nothing more than a brief convergence of advantageous decisions and circumstances. Erik ten Hag wasn’t the problem.