The World Cup is over, attention turns to the transfer window. The media creates urgency to upgrade and spend, the evidence says slow down and plan.

• When clubs sell their most valuable player, points per game drops by just 0.1. 
• The average club-record signing plays 59% of available minutes in their first season. 
• Of the 25 most expensive signings in history, only five rose in value after joining.

Last summer, Liverpool spent £446m (British record window) falling from champions to fifth. Arsenal signed Gyokeres for £55m; he scored 14 league goals – the second lowest top-scorer return by a champion in 20 years, yet they still won the league. We called it.

What predicts how well a team does next season is not the quality of signings in and of themselves. It’s the coherence of those signings to a plan – connecting coaching, the academy, performance operations, and club vision.