FIFA’s proposed 2030 World Cup expansion to 64 teams raises a key question: how much would it dilute the attractiveness of the competition?

At the top, international football is as competitive as club football. Our models rate Germany as the 10th-best nation in the past 5 years, giving them on average a 19% chance vs. Argentina (1st); similar to Chelsea (10th) vs. Man City (1st) at 20% over five years.

However, the drop-off in quality is far steeper in international football. Northern Ireland (64th) have just a 1.9% chance vs. Argentina (1st), while Hoffenheim (64th) vs. Man City (1st) would be 8% – four times more likely – a significant difference.

A good sporting ‘product’ needs both Quality and Jeopardy; a 64-team tournament risks diluting both. While FIFA strives for inclusivity, it means little in the long term if the commercial appeal of their biggest asset is undermined.