The Champions League’s league phase format has created some exceptionally high-quality matchups, but jeopardy has felt low. This seems to have relaxed the elite teams, who have most at stake in the competition. Goals per game in matches involving ‘superclubs’ is up 16% in the new format.

The paradox is that superclubs have been less likely to reach the last 16 in the new format: 76% (19/25) of these clubs have reached this round since 2024/25, compared with 84% (80/95) in 2016-2023. 

Except jeopardy, as fans and players feel it, is not about qualifying for the last 16 – it’s simply about not being eliminated. So far, no superclub has suffered this embarrassment (though we project a first this season).

Quality and jeopardy are both critical to making fans care, and therefore driving commercial success. The Champions League’s league phase may have tilted too far to the former.