Team Europe are the weaker side at Bernardus this week. They’re also our favourites. The contradiction here is solely down to the European crowd. 

Strip the venue out and the 24-strong roster make Team USA clear favourites, Team Europe barely a one-in-three chance of lifting the cup. Add the Dutch galleries, at the Netherlands’ first Solheim Cup, and Team Europe are 55%.

Chance of ending the week holding the cup, on the players and the course alone, then with the home edge from 19 editions counted. The United States retain the cup on a tie, which the model gives an 8% chance.

That’s what home advantage delivers in one of sport’s most competitive formats. Across 19 editions the home team has claimed 54% of all points, a swing of more than two points over a 28-point week. This week that swing is almost exactly the gap between them, which is how Nordqvist’s side lead without being the better team.

The caveat: the edge is fading. Home sides won eight of the first nine but five of the last nine. Noise, or is home advantage genuinely dwindling? Only time will tell.