Unpicking a bad week for Premier League clubs

Premier League clubs’ collective one win from nine games in UEFA competitions last week raised two questions:

  1. Is the Premier League as dominant as we think?
  2. Does the league’s competitiveness and intensity hinder its clubs in Europe?

These nine games however, with six of them played away, don’t reflect the longer term picture, below. Premier League clubs have the best win percentages in both the league and knockout stages. And while win percentages fall significantly in the knockouts – which one might ascribe to the league’s intensity catching up with teams by the spring – it is comparable to the drop off observed by German and Portuguese teams. They play in leagues with more rest between games and (certainly in Portugal’s case) much greater competitive imbalance, which suggests multiple factors are at play.

Football’s news cycle demands simple narratives, but analysis of structural trends demands a more considered approach and response.

Omar Chaudhuri
Chief Intelligence Officer

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