Rory McIlroy is just one of the many prominent voices to declare that winning a Ryder Cup on foreign soil is one of the most difficult things to do in golf. He would know: since 1997, there have been as many men to complete the career grand slam (McIlroy & Woods) as there have been victories by the Ryder Cup away side (Europe in 2004 & 2012).

While home sides have dominated, no one can say for certain that the US will win this week. Our analysis indicates that home advantage improves a team’s win probability by 8 percentage points. Away rookies have struggled especially – since 2008, players making their Ryder Cup debuts at home have averaged 0.59 points per match, versus 0.46 away.

In the alternate shot format, the home side has accrued a massive +27 point differential since 2012; foursomes will be critical for European success at Bethpage.