One of the greatest ongoing risks football clubs face is overestimating the impact of any single decision.

Take Arsenal, who have signed Viktor Gyökeres. The temptation – certainly from the fans and media – is to believe that he will end the club’s title drought. Our models forecast a positive impact, but in the region of 3 points: meaningful, but not transformative.

That’s not a judgement on the transfer, it’s a reflection on the realities of operating a club. In working with owners over the last 12 years, we have seen that long-term success comes not from one key decision, or even several big decisions, but rather the compounding of repeated good decisions built on robust processes that invites challenge and refinement. 

Put another way: if Arsenal win the league, it won’t be because they signed Viktor Gyökeres – it’ll be because of an aggregation of 5+ years of good decision making.